Monday, June 29, 2009

White Heat Holidays


Everything is perfectly under control

Humongous deficits, sterling crises, emergency budgets, tax rises, strikes, and a weak divided government headed by a delusional Prime Minister with neither plan nor credibility.

It could well describe the coming winter. But it was actually the sick man of Europe swingin’ his way through sixties.

Poolside, Tyler has been reading Dominic Sandbrook’s White Heat, a lengthy but highly readable account of Britain under the hopeless Harold Wilson. And the parallels with Brown’s Britain leap off every page.

Particularly striking are the identical failures of leadership. Faced with huge economic challenges, Wilson shirked all the tough decisions until they were forced on him by events. Short-termist in the extreme, he never admitted his failures even when they were staring him – and everyone else – in the face.

Most notoriously, when - despite constant assurances to the contrary - he was finally forced to devalue the Pound in 1967, he went on TV and ludicrously asserted that the “Pound in your pocket” had somehow not been devalued.

It’s exactly how Brown would have played it – with the exception that Wilson was a rather more convincing liar. Plus, of course, Wilson had won two elections, and could therefore claim a legitimacy Brown has never had.

Elections or not, by 1968/69 Wilson was held in utter contempt. Not only the press and the electorate despised him, but his immediate colleagues thought him a waste of space. They spent years plotting behind his back, and after his abject failure to push though trade union reform (In Place of Strife), they very nearly summoned up the courage to knife him. Except of course they didn’t – just like today’s gutless cabinet, Jenkins et al never located the requisite balls.

But the real lesson from the 1964-70 Wilson government is not for Brown and Labour. It is for Dave and George when they take the helm next May.

Because Wilson’s biggest and most disastrous failure was not to grip the economic problems on Day One.

He’d inherited from the Tories an economy that was living well beyond its means, with a wholly unsustainable current account deficit. Yet instead of implementing the necessary deflation and fiscal discipline straight away, he tinkered around the edges, hoping the problem would somehow go away. Instead, the problems simply got worse, and the financial markets (or the Gnomes of Zurich, as Wilson unwisely dismissed them) took fright.

That loss of confidence compounded our problems hugely. It meant Wilson had to go cap in hand to the Americans for successive bailouts, and was ultimately forced to impose much bigger tax increases and spending cuts than would have been necessary had he acted straight off the bat.

Dave and George must not repeat that mistake. Everyone knows Britain is again living beyond its means. Everybody knows it cannot go on. And everybody is expecting decisive action after the election.

The financial markets will not be forgiving if there’s a Wilson-style wobble. And the price we will then have to pay for Brown’s economic fiasco will be even higher.

PS Well, it’s the end of June, and Mr and Mrs T are staying in a rather nice hotel looking out over the Med. Somebody’s got to do it, and normally at this time, such a hotel would be packed with affluent Germans. Not this year. Indeed, we reckon the hotel is only a quarter full. True, Peter Stringfellow is knocking around with a young lady who is presumably his grand-daughter, but there’s no disguising the general emptiness. The staff are putting a brave face on it, but we’re concerned: for them, the Spanish economy, and everyone else who has been living too high on the hog.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Omokage- Reminiscence


Main Entry:
rem·i·nis·cence Listen to the pronunciation of reminiscence
Pronunciation:
\-ˈni-sən(t)s\
Function:
noun
Date:
1589

1: apprehension of a Platonic idea as if it had been known in a previous existence

2 a: recall to mind of a long-forgotten experience or fact b: the process or practice of thinking or telling about past experiences

3 a: a remembered experience b: an account of a memorable experience —often used in plural4: something so like another as to be regarded as an unconscious repetition, imitation, or survival

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/reminiscence

 

 

It’s not about that word. It’s about this song, and it has suddenly came out from reading two words from somewhere in the net: true north. The song is entitled Omokage and this was Shaman King’s second ending song. My mind has been filled by anime and anime alone for the second half of my current existence—meaning since I reached the age of 10 or 11. From that period of time, many animes dominated my existence—to the point that it became my defining ‘characteristic’ up to this time.

One of the most popular defining anime was Shaman King, the anime that started my fanfiction.net career (if that’s how we term it). It was that time when I transferred to a new school, and everything was new. Shaman King was aired and became the reason that I rush out of II-OL Rosary’s classroom every afternoon, the reason why I became close friends with Katrina and Loren, and the reason why my desk was filled with vandals of ヨウ beneath the plastic cover and all the rest of fangirlish stuffs I was in to during 2nd year high school.

I liked everything about Shaman King, although now, as I look back, it’s not really an admirable plot to begin with. It is finally plain in my sight now. The greatness about Yoh Asakura has been trampled by Uchiha Sasuke, and now, by several living guys in my age group. But what remained in my memory was this song, this one rendered by Megumi Hayashibara as Kyouyama Anna’s seiyuu:

 

Original / Romaji Lyrics
English Translation

kagami ni utsuru yokogao ni
kimi o kasanete
My heart is breaking.
surinuketeyuku kaze no you ni
tsukami kirenai
Why is it you?


at the side view of the face reflected in the mirror
I place you over it and
my heart is breaking
like the passing wind
I can't catch it
why is it you?


todoku koto no nai yubisaki
hitori ni giri shimeteru
kawasu koto no nai kotoba o
yozora no hoshi ni nagashi


the finger tips that will never reach
I hold them alone
the words that will never be exchanged are
drifted into the stars in the night sky


mou furimukanai
Ah kanashimi sae setsunasa sae
kimi to umareta akashi
Ah tadayotteiru
kokoro no kiri no hate
I made up my mind.


I won't turn back
ah even sadness, even loneliness
is the proof that we were born
ah the flowing
end of my heart
I made up my mind


nani mo iwanai kuchibiru no
oku de kanjiru
You are my true north.
kimi no koe o kizandeiru
kotoba ijou ni
I know enough.


the lips that will never say anything
I feel it deep within
you are my true north
leaving your voice
more than words
I know enough


aishiteru to tsubuyaku yori
kitto kokoro ga yureru
koishiteru to tsutaeru yori
kizuna ga fukaku natte


instead of whispering that you love me
my heart is probably swaying
instead of saying you're in love
the relationship gets deeper


ima hitori ja nai
Ah kanashimi sae setsunasa sae
norikoete ike sou de
Ah mune ni daita
kimi no omokage ima
I will take it there.


I'm not alone now
ah even sadness, even loneliness
seems like it can be endured
ah held it to myself
your reminiscent and now
I will take it there


mou furimukanai
Ah kanashimi sae setsunasa sae
kimi to umareta akashi
Ah tadayotteiru
kokoro no kiri no hate
Ah kanashimi sae setsunasa sae
norikoete ike sou de
Ah mune ni daita
kimi no omokage ima
I will take it there.


I won't turn back
ah even sadness, even loneliness
is the proof that we were born
ah the flowing
end of my heart
ah even sadness, even loneliness
seems like it can be endured
ah held it to myself
your reminiscent and now
I will take it there


Transliterated by P Whalan pdwhalan@bigpond.net.au>



Translated by mink309


http://minknokobeya.wordpress.com/




 



It wasn’t for the tune that I was hooked in this song, but at the time I was writing Shaman King fanfics, I somewhat associated this song to Kyouyama Anna. If there was one female anime character I could closely relate myself with, it must be her (besides Tsukamoto Tenma).



Since Shaman King wave has long gone and I’ve parted ways with the “addicts” we were before, it might seem easier to forget this. But still, the melody lingers in my head as if it was only now that I’m hearing it for the first time.

Friday, June 26, 2009

I. Me. Myself.

Honestly, I’m at a state of emotional downtime right now. Problems have arrived, both internally and externally. I’m not writing this for angst’s sake or because I want to have a tell-all for those who will pass by my blog, but I’m writing this out of removing the guilt/hurt/sadness and all the negative things coming into my mind today. Sure, I might have all the bitterness here, but I must say that I did things that somewhat blew off my constant system. What was I thinking anyway? Here I am wondering why I had done everything. Ooh. Talking about ‘jumping into the cliff without thinking twice’. Since it all started with my impulsive behavior, it also should end that way.

I bet anyone who’s reading this can’t get straight to my point. I’m talking about all instances here, but I do not wish to specify. I can’t put myself to cry although I want to. I would want to do that, but maybe my tears were taken by Optimus Prime’s earlier death (but he was resurrected… ooh, spoiler mode). Hmn, Michael Jackson’s death hasn’t done any effect with this. Again, out of impulse, I’ve been doing this. I would also not want to elaborate this.

Okay. Let me rant. Or rather let me just blabber even just for a little space in my blog. Let me type nothingness with some sense into this. I know it is foolish. But then again, I don’t think I’m happy nor sad about it. Some part of my emotions are breaking down into two parts. My mind wants me to concentrate on my dad’s illness. My heart also does that. Maybe the shock about my dad’s illness and the fact that he doesn’t want to pursue medication blew my mind off. Because of that, I don’t want to be happy. But I also don’t want to be sad. So I think being sorta neutral but wavering to the depths of loneliness will make me feel better.

I’ve grown up now. I could finally recognize what would benefit me emotionally. When it comes to financial part, I don’t think I'll rely on anyone like my parents. I would want to concentrate on my studies now. I believe that some ultimate force must’ve told my mind that it would be best for now if I do focus on my studies—and I should do something immediately about it. I’m just worrying about a lot of things, but I think I should take someone’s word for that.

From this point of time, I’m at a loss of what to do. My daily activities would not change. I think I won’t speak about anything for now. And I should end something too. I know it’s folly if I’d be too engrossed with directing my attention to other things, and leave my social life behind, but I think I need that. I would try to change my bitchy ways from now on. I’ll try to be nicer. No, I’ll not try but I’ll start being nicer to most people.

Whether I hurt anyone during the process or gave hope to anyone, I don’t want to know. What’s important is that I could live normally.

My life’s been abnormal for the last 4 years. I want to revert it to the normal way it was. I really hope I could do that.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

VISA APPLIED FROM INDIA

If you applied your visa from India for various countries you can click on the below link to check the visa status

1) Applied for Australia Visa  

2) Applied for Austria Visa

3) Applied for Belgium Visa

4) Applied for Canada Visa

5) Applied for Denmark Visa

6) Applied for  France Visa

7) Applied for Germany Visa

8)Applied for Greece Visa

9) Applied for Iceland Visa

10) Applied for Ireland Visa

11) Applied for Italy Visa

12) Applied for Malaysia Visa

13) Applied for Malta Visa

14) Applied for   Netherlands Visa  from New Delhi-North India
                             Netherlands Visa  from West & South India 

15) Applied for New Zealand Visa 

16) Applied for Portugal Visa 

17) Applied for South Africa 

18) Applied for Spain Visa 

19) Applied for Sweden Visa 

20) Applied for Switzerland Visa 

21) Applied for Thailand Visa 

22) Applied for Dubai Visa 

23) Applied for UK Visa 

24) Applied for USA Visa




Please visit us at:

Monday, June 22, 2009

Holiday Ideas



Having only just been castigated by one BOM reader for "laziness born of financial comfort" (see this post), I hesitate to mention the following: Mrs T and I are off on holiday for a week.

But while we're away, here are a couple of things that you might want to try.

First, do - please do - take a look at an excellent new website, Debt Bombshell. Not only does it tell you everything you never wanted to know about our ballooning National Debt, but it also features a scary graphic of the actual ticking debt bomb itself.

The site recommends we all write to our MPs to underline the seriousness of the situation, and demand they start pressing for action. We'll be doing exactly that on our return, and may we urge you to do likewise.

Second, please take a look at the Ministry of Truth campaign for a Prohibition of Deception Act. The idea is that any MP who makes a statement that he knows to be "misleading, false or deceptive in a material manner" gets sent down.

Now I know what you're thinking - how can we possibly have a law like that when the prisons are already full?

Not a problem - we'd simply establish a Sheriff Joe-style tent prison.

Or maybe you were wondering how we'd ever prove a politico knowingly made false statements?

Agreed, that is a little trickier: after all, even on those obviously non-existent Iraqi WMD, Bliar had probably convinced himself they did exist (because that's what salesmen do).

Which is why Tyler asked the organisers over at Minitruth how this law could ever work? They said there would be an "independent regulatory body" which would sit in judgement. Tyler immediately nominated himself and the Major as OffTruth's first permanent members.

Third, tomorrow night at 8pm you might want to tune in your cat's whisker to BBC R4. File on 4 is taking a close look at PFI, and whether by any stretch of the imagination it can possibly be giving taxpayers value for money. It should include testimony from The Bloke... assuming he hasn't been dumped on the cutting room floor of course.

PS Holiday, eh? In his defence, Tyler wishes to state that this is his first holiday in 2009, and it's only for one week, and he's only going to Bognor. Or somewhere like that, anyway. Plus, he'll carry on posting poolside. Plus he'll mortify his flesh in some way. He'll maintain his integrity somehow. Promise.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

And Another Thing...


No - you listen to me for a change

As we said right at the outset, Tyler started BOM because Mrs T got fed up with him shouting at the telly. Her view was - and is - that all blokes of a certain age get grey hair and glasses (plus maybe trousers that are an inch or two short), and then start pontificating loudly and uncontrollably to the extreme annoyance of those around them.

The traditional remedy was to shoot them. But post the Human Rights Act, you can't do that (well, not without written authorisation from the Secretary of State, anyway). Instead, you have to send them down the pub. Or a day centre. Or latterly, you can start them blogging. Anything to tidy them up out the way.

The above pic illustrates her point precisely. It shows three old gents arguing on a pavement in central London. They're obviously having a whale of a time, but it's quite clear that not one of them is listening to a word the others are saying.

The pic was taken in the mid-80s*, and the pavement in question is outside a day centre called the Insitute of Economic Affairs. The three gents were (L to R) Ralph "Lord Harris of High Cross" Harris, Arthur Seldon, and Prof Friedrich "Road to Serfdom" Hayek.

And those three were among the most influential free market/anti Big Government figures of the last half century.

Which just goes to show that batty old blokes with grey hair and glasses still have their uses.

But here's another thing...

In the final ghastly days of Labour, they keep telling us that at least they've (more or less) ended poverty. In his Gruaniad interview (blogged here), Gordo himself boasted:

"Poverty has fallen, and you'll see it continue to fall over the next year or so... Removing people from poverty must be our priority."

That is complete bunkum.

On any meaningful definition, Labour has not reduced poverty. Even if you accept their ridiculous definition of poverty as being measured relative to median income, real poverty has not fallen under Labour.

True, Brown has managed to reduce the proportion of those on less than 60% of median income (which is his entirely arbitrary definition of poverty), but the proportion in real poverty has not fallen one jot.

As we can see from the following IFS table (and see this blog), the proportion on less than 40% of median income has actually increased, and more than one-tenth of households are still on less than 50% of the median:

So when you're next watching Newsnight and some government minister goes on about Labour ending poverty, please feel free to shout at the telly.

Loudly.

*Footnote - that outstandingly posed pic is taken from a new biography of Arthur Seldon, one of the founders of the IEA. I haven't yet read it, but as a "member in good standing" (nice to know), I've just been sent a free copy by the good folk at the Institute. And no, I don't really think the IEA is a day centre - it continues to produce some excellent papers, several of which we've blogged in the past.

Walking Away




Many apologies for two days without posts. You're not interested in excuses - Tyler simply walked away from his duty. Or as this email puts it:

"Dear sir,

If you do not post at least once a day, please do try to convince me that your heart and soul are in this blog. You miss many opportunities to score points against our enemies and seem to display a laziness born of financial comfort which most of your followers cannot afford. Do your duty or else please stop imploring others to do theirs."

Thank you NS - I needed that. Admonishment duly received and understood.

As it happens, we know someone else who frets about his duty. A couple of weeks back, after a particularly gruelling run-in with the real world, he told us he would not walk away:
"I will get on with the job. I have faith in doing my duty ... I believe in never walking away in difficult times."
Admirable. The authentic fighting spirit of Gordon of Khartoum. He certainly didn't walk away: it's what made the Empire great.

Except that by yesterday, our modern day Gordon was reconsidering - maybe walking away wasn't such a bad option after all:

"To be honest, you could walk away from all of this tomorrow... I wouldn't worry if I never returned to all those places - Downing Street, Chequers ... And it would probably be good for my children."

To walk, or not to walk, that is the question. A classic struggle between duty and personal survival.

Ah, but what is this duty he's fretting about?

Clearly, it can't be duty to country. We never voted for him, he's taking us into a fiscal and economic abyss, and he's got the lowest poll ratings since the Sheriff of Nottingham. Virtually everyone agrees he should go now, and we'd all thank him for it.

So that can't be the duty he's worried about.

And it can't be his duty to the Labour Party, either. On BOM, we have no interest in Labour's survival, but it's pretty obvious Gordo's driving them to destruction. As the excellent Daniel Hannan puts it this morning:
"You don't have to be a spin doctor to see what Gordon Brown is doing to his party's popularity. He has taken Labour to a share of the popular vote it has not registered since before universal male suffrage, when it was a tiny band of trade-union-sponsored candidates. Anyone – anyone – would make a more electable leader, even Michael Foot, if the old boy could be persuaded to come out of retirement.

By hanging on, the party is repeating the mistake of John Major's Tories in the mid-1990s, trying the patience of an angry electorate, purchasing each day now at the cost of a week in eventual Opposition.


So why would Gordo want to destroy the Labour Party? Hannan reckons it's all a plot by Mandy and others to keep Gordo there just long enough for the Irish to ratify the EU constitution.

But there's a much simpler explanation - like so many driven control freaks, Gordo simply cannot accept that he has failed.

The duty he frets about is the duty to his own self-image as someone who never fails.

Of course, given the manifest failure all round, he can only sustain that self-image by persuading himself that things are somehow going to get better. Which is why he's spun that little world for himself that bears no relation to the one the rest of us inhabit.

Take this statement of his in yesterday's Grauniad interview:
"The Tories have made, for them, a cardinal mistake in that they admitted the truth - that if you take 10% off the health service or schools or policing, you've cut into the jobs, the services, the expectations. The Conservatives' mask has slipped. They cannot be a centre ground party any more, they can't talk about being mainstream. The choice has become a lot clearer."

Which must be a great comfort to him. Except of course, the Tories have specifically promised not to cut health spending (a serious error on our view - see previous posts). Gordo has chosen not to notice.

Neither has he chosen to notice that his own government is also planning to slash public spending after the election. According to him, they won't need to cut:
"No. It's a myth. Public spending will continue to rise. It's in our figures. We've costed it, and you're paying more in top rate tax to pay for it."

A myth? The guy's either the biggest liar since Doc Goebbels, or he's lost the plot.

As everyone else knows by now (and as we blogged here), under his published plans, public spending is set to fall after the election (ie after stripping out inflation). And spending on public services (health, schools, policing etc) is set to fall especially sharply (by 2.3% pa in real terms, according to the IFS). His tax increase for the undeserving rich comes nowhere near enough to fund continued spending growth.

From Hitler to the boss of Northern Rock, the heads of big organisations often get into situations like Gordo. They have failed, but they cannot bring themselves to recognise and accept that failure. So they cling on, despite the fact that virtually everybody wants them to go, and the stress is taking a terrible toll on their own health.

A few weeks ago there was a rather upsetting interview with Sir Stuart Rose, the beleaguered head of Marks and Sparks. He's always been a much more convincing presenter than Gordo, he has achieved much more than Gordo, and unlike Gordo, he was actually elected to his current post (by shareholders). But despite that, since the recession took hold, he's gone from hero to zero, and he's facing exactly the same kinds of pressure:

"It was a terrible year, you've no idea... it was the worst year of my life... but I believe I've come out and I'm stronger for it... Recently I've been looking at my garden, watching it grow. I've been standing there for two or three weekends in a row, looking at the buds... I now just live on my own and I don't have a relationship with anybody... you do feel a little bit of a vacuum in your life...

I said to myself this Christmas, I want to start doing more things for myself... M& S has completely eaten up my life... There have been times when it has been more than I wanted, but what can you do? When you're in, you're in."


It's that duty thing again, and you can feel the pressure crushing down on him.

But at least Rose knows his time's up, and he's got to go.

The really alarming thing about Gordo is that he simply doesn't understand that. And instead of accepting reality, he's now attempting to govern Britain on the basis of the fantasy that exists only inside his own head.

Scary.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Love Contract

Nonfiction, true. Yeah, this all occurred to me. I don’t care if you believe this or not, but I’m totally honest in all the contents this post. And I believe I need to let this out of my system one last time.

Taiwanese drama of the same title, I sorta had the same experience but not quite the enemies-turned-lovers thingy in romance dramas type. It is more of a willing entrapment (how ironic) between two people in order to stay good together. Is there such a thing like making this paperwork just for the sake of staying together? Actually, I may correct it and shrink it into a simpler word, it’s for complacency.

I may have appeared so ‘legal’ in everything that had occurred to me in the past: my mom returning ‘confiscated novels and drawings of anime’ in return for me being the class’ top one or topping a Periodical Test in the next quarter will have to have a written contact signed by me and her, me receiving a thousand pesos for every merit card during my PCC days would also involve a contract-signing between me and my mom (again), and also most verbal contracts between me and my dad would end up in paper. Just as I thought it would be for the security of everything we’ve agreed on, now I realized it’s nothing but a statement that tells me I’m such a desperate person.

In my relationship, I’ve had 2 contracts in the past. One was something like a TRO to him when I felt so mad and all. The contract states that he will stay away from me (or we’ll not see each other technically) for 25 days including the February 14th of that year (yeah I know it sucks for you guys to miss Valentine’s Day with your girlfriend). I thought that was the worst I could do to him, but then we kinda created another one which didn’t really have an impact before. It was more of another agreement that would make me calm down whenever I feel insecure or unfeeling towards something related to him. Yes, he’s experienced my highs and lows in my emotional stability, and I believe he should be lauded for his persistence.

However, this time, it was different. I may be in the best emotional slash mental condition right now and he demanded for a newer and more ‘legal’ sort of contract. I was taken aback. What the hell entered his mind that he proposed this to me? I ran along the memories of what we’ve been seriously dealing and talking. Oh, right. I think I might have said harsher and meaner things like ‘I don’t really believe you anymore’ and ‘I don’t believe you’ll be ever faithful to me’ and finally, ‘I don’t trust your love’. Ah, my tongue. I wish this was taken by a cat during those times. I’m always compulsive with the words I throw back and forth. I’m always the ‘not really thinking, jumping into conclusions and jumping into the unknown’ type of person. Something tells me that my gut feeling is always right, that I have no better options than jumping into this ‘new, unchartered territory’.

I wanted to refuse his written contract proposal, but then I thought of the times I demanded this from him. I didn’t know what to think of his sudden actions, I’m just surprised that he could go this far. Guilt trip again, friends. This nearly want me to erase my existence… but I cannot, of course. I decided just to say my quick and unwavering ‘okay’ to him, and asked him to draft this proposed contract. I thought of what would be the end of that deal for me, what I would get if I do agree, and what might be the consequences of this sudden thing we’re seriously agreeing on. Definitely, this is stranger than I thought. No one is sane enough to ask his 19-year old freakin’ stubborn girlfriend to marry him and all, right? I still doubted the sanity of this person up to this moment. Again, comes the why me part and all. I do not want to elaborate everything, but yeah, it is utterly stupid. I won’t call him all the pretty mean names I wanted to call him because of that. Because in reality, I might be the one who’s waaay stupider or foolish than him. That, we do not know yet.

As I stare blankly at the LCD monitor of Hazel-PC, I knew I needed to edit this thing into my liking. Yes, this is the perfect chance of dominating and getting the upper-hand. He’ll probably agree and not question anyway, since he told me he was doing this for himself as well. Why waste energy arguing with an argumentative person? I don’t know why, but he’s pretty good at arguing with me and making me stop. Even my mother cannot control my war freak tendencies. So is my dad. Anyway, I typed specific things at the 6th item and made it go up to half a page. After sending the revisions, he agreed with most of those things I added. A few talks, and I printed my copy. I didn’t sign yet even as I instructed him to do so in his own copy, because as a girl, I think I would change my mind the very minute or so. I didn’t.

Yesterday, around this time, we signed it. It was idiotic, yes, because it’s sort of binding yourself to a person into a ruse and with the use of obviously illegal documents you simply created to serve as your emotional outlet. Yep. I summarized the two-paged, 8 and a half by 11 inch paper document that contains the things we’re insecure of, and things we wish would happen and or intend to happen in the near future. The font size was 11, and the font was Verdana (my personal favorite). I didn’t care even if it’s stupidity that time. I guess, there’s really something I want to prove him all along. Maybe, that could be the love thing. I guess, I really do love this guy after all (say cheesy all you want, reader!).

 

Thursday, June 18, 2009

OMG


Soaring into the stratosphere


OMG 1

Today's public borrowing stats are way beyond dire: they are OMG terminal.

In the first two months of this financial year the government borrowed £30.5bn, comfortably over twice what they borrowed in the same two months last year.

At this rate we will certainly blow Darling's budget forecast of £175bn borrowing over the entire year. Even a straight pro rating suggests we'll hit £190bn, but with unemployment surging, that's an underestimate. Get ready for £200bn+.

In other words, Brown/Darling will smash the pre-NuLab record for a single year's government borrowing by a factor of 4 (previous record was £51bn in 1993-94). That is incompetence of an exceptionally high order.

Yes, yes, of course - you and I know we should adjust that for inflation. But not only does our beloved leader himself ignore inflation adjustments when it suits him, even if we did adjust the figures, this would still be well over twice the previous record.

And as we've said many times, either through taxes or inflation, you and I are the ones who will have to pay it off. For years and years... long after Catastrophe Brown has faded into just an unpleasant memory.


OMG 2

According to the Met Office, Hull is the new City by the Bay.

For an undisclosed fee - paid by those generous folk at "the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Department of Energy and Climate Change with the Scottish Government, Welsh Assembly Government and Northern Ireland Department of the Environment" - the Met Office has calculated Hull's climate in 2050.

We now know for A FACT that by 2050, Hull will be sizzling in Med-style temperatures, and its depressing North Sea drizzle will be a thing of the past.

As regular readers may recall, we've blogged the unappreciated potential of Hull before. This is the final proof. Thanks to the twin blessings of global warming and the property crash, you now have the chance to make your fortune!

Right now, you can pick up brand new top spec riverside apartments for a tad over £100 grand apiece. And just think what they'll be worth once the city looks like this:



You know it makes sense - I'll bet those boys from the Met Office have dived in already.

PS The Met Office describes its new toy thus: "UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) is a climate analysis tool, funded by Defra, which features the most comprehensive climate projections ever produced. Projections are broken down to a regional level across the UK and are shown in probabilistic form — illustrating the potential range of changes and the level of confidence in each prediction." But when you look at the projections, all you find are numbers for temperature and rainfall. There's no mention at all of those extra hours of sunshine we'll enjoy in 2050. The sunshine numbers have been redacted - possibly literally, since there's an odd gap in the summary where they look like they might have slotted in. Why, you'd almost think the Met Office don't want us to know the good news about Hull. And indeed the rest of Britain.

Celebrity Collage by MyHeritage



Government By Porkie Pie


Brown's performance at yesterday's Prime Ministers Questions was breath-taking. Does he really think we'll believe his lies about future public spending growth (see previous posts eg here)? Does he really think we're that dumb?

The Major and I have been trying to remember if Gordo has ever told us the truth about anything. Consider his record:
  • 10p tax rate fiasco - lied
  • Abolished boom and bust - lied
  • Government debt - lied
  • EU constitution referendum - lied
  • Immigration - lied
  • Climate change - lied
  • Choice of Chancellor - lied
  • Abandoned election - lied

Frankly we're struggling, although the Major suspects this may be true:

The Prime Minister (Mr. Gordon Brown): "This morning I had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in the House, I shall have further such meetings later today."

So why does he lie so much?

Yes, we understand he's a liar, and that's what liars do. But surely he must have some inkling of how his lies land with the rest of us. Surely he couldn't have climbed to the top of the greasy pole without having at least some inkling. Could he?

And he's got so bad at it. In his early days as Chancellor he used to lie all the time, but he was better at it. His double-counting and dense statistical mendacity had a certain class - it was the work of a craftsman.

But now he's just pants. His lies about public spending growth are so thin and easy to disprove. Frankly, it's pathetic to behold.

The real question of course is whether he himself understands the difference between truth and lies. As we've said before, the scariest possibility is that he actually believes his own version of reality.

The rest of us may hear the Governor of the Bank of England, the Institute of Fiscal Studies, the credit rating agencies, and at least 364 economists, saying spending cuts are essential to save Britain from the knacker's yard. But Brown may simply believe they are all wrong.

Like many a scary control freak before him, he may think he's the only man who understands the real truth.

PS Yes, there was that other PM who ignored 364 economists, and was subsequently proved right. But Tyler remembers that other PM, and despite his photo-op on the No 10 doorstep, Mr B is no Mrs T.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Fantasy Grown-Ups


There must be something else we can listen to

On Monday, Mrs T and I were driving along a real road in a real car in the real world listening to a play about a parallel universe. Well, to be honest, it wasn't clear if it was really a parallel universe, or whether the central character was just fantasising it was real. Or maybe he knew it wasn't real, but thought he could make it real by telling enough lies about it.

It was called the World At One, and the central character was a blustering unpleasant sounding man with the splendid Dickensian name of Mr Balls. Just like Mr Micawber, Mr Balls had mortgaged and remortgaged his house, maxxed out his credit cards, long ago lost any visible means of support, and was facing ejection by the bailiffs.

He wasn't nearly as appealing as Micawber, but his fantasy of something turning up was asserted much more stridently. Shouting out through the letterbox, he tried to blag the bailiffs with his alternative worldview:

"Of course there's going to be tough choices, of course we're going to have to be more efficient," he screamed. "I think with tough choices we can see real rises in the schools budget and the NHS budget in future years.

"If we get the economy right, as I believe we are doing, I think we can see the spending on schools and hospitals rising in real terms after 2011."

Sadly, the bailiffs were unimpressed. After a few minutes of Ballsian drivel, they smashed down the door and carted him off to the Marshalsea.

****
So does Labour expect anyone to believe their fantasy "tough choices" somehow avoid the need for real painful spending cuts? Or could it be that they actually believe it themselves?

Of all the people in the cabinet, the one who is supposed to be most grounded when it comes to the purse-strings is the Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He/she is the one who's supposed to rein in spending colleagues, and constantly talk down the prospects for extra cash.

But the new incumbent - the splutteringly slippery Liam Byrne - is just as bad as Balls. He says:

"You've got to separate two kinds of spending here. You've got to separate current spending, that is the day-to-day cash in hand. In real terms that grows by 0.7%...

It is a bit of a red herring, I think, to try and mix up capital spending and current spending. You know, if you put the two things together you get the numbers that you talk about. Because of course once you've got a school, you've got a school. Once you've got a hospital, you've got a hospital. The thing that really matters is what happens in the day-to-day current spending. The overall envelope rises by 0.7%."


So cuts in capital spending - which are eye-wateringly savage under Darling's most recent plans - somehow don't count as "cuts".

And what's with this "spending envelope"? The term implies that we know nothing of the envelope's contents - only that the overall total for current spending rises by 0.7% pa in real terms. The composition is unknown and we can choose how to divvy it up.

But of course, we do know something of the envelope's contents already. We know that they include rapidly rising debt interest payments - over which the government has no control - and also rising expenditure on welfare benefits, again very tricky to control.

And as the IFS spelled out, once you net off realistic estimates for debt interest and welfare payments, the residual "envelope" shows a real terms decline of 2.3% pa post 2010-11 (eg see this post... and it would still be a decline even if you looked at current spending only).

The government has not given us a proper spending breakdown past 2010-11. But for that year, we know that total spending is projected to be just over £700bn (Total Managed Expenditure - TME). Of that, just under £300bn comprises spending that the government does not directly control - largely welfare benefits and debt interest. Which leaves around £400bn that it does in theory control, and can cut.

We know they're already planning swingeing cuts in capital spending, so let's focus on the non-capital element of this £400bn, which amounts to c£350bn.

Of that non-capital element, some £100bn comprises Health spending, which has been ring-fenced by the Tories, forcing Labour to match them (although on BBC R4 Today this morning Darling was back-peddling furiously from Health Secretary Burnham's recent pledge).

Which leaves less than £250bn to take all the cuts.

The trouble is, with total cuts required in the range £50-100bn, that means areas from Schools to Defence to Criminal Justice all having to take cuts in current spending of 20-40%.

Or to put it another way, that simply ain't gonna happen: the pain will have to be spread much more widely. It will have to encompass not only scared cows such as the NHS and overseas aid, but also something that hasn't had much attention so far - the level of welfare benefits.

Outside the government, everyone - including George - is saying that the issue about cuts is no longer whether they will be needed: they definitely will.

The issue now is what cuts are we going to impose?

And the sooner we have that real grown-up discussion the better.

Monday, June 15, 2009

News From BOM Correspondents - 20


This week's news and links:

Sinking Gordo

Excellent cartoon above is by Dutch illustrator Siegfried Woldhek. So much for G's supposedly massive international standing.

Well worth taking a look through Siegfried's gallery (copied with permission).

(HTP Michael P)


Honours for failure

"Dr Barbara Hakin, East Midlands health authority chief executive and key player in GP negotiation over pay and contracts, has become a dame." (BBC News)

So would that be those GP contracts that turned out to be one of the most costly failures in the entire history of the NHS? The contract that gave GPs an immediate 30% pay increase while simultaneously allowing them to opt out of providing Saturday morning surgeries, and out of hours cover? (See many previous posts - eg here)

Failure is a concept entirely unrecognised by Big Government.

Failure is success.

Black is white.

(HTP HJ)


Severe shortage of Public Sector Bosses

Yesterday's Sunday Times jobs section (Appointments) was a classic. Of the 14 top flight jobs advertised on pages 1 and 2, no fewer than ten were for tax-funded operations (and two of the others are virtually tax-funded). They included:
  • Chair of the East of England Regional Development Agency - yes one of those entirely useless RDAs that are high on George's Cuts List - £82 grand for a three day week
  • Director of Communications for Imperial NHS Trust - they've obviously got more than enough doctors and nurses, so they're using up their surplus cash on a "competitive package" for a Propaganda chief who will "deliver a cohesive communications strategy across a multi-stakeholder community"
  • Director of Marketing at Buying Solutions - a "six figure package plus benefits" for someone to market the services of the tax-funded Office for Government Commerce to the rest of the tax-funded public sector; Buying Solutions is of course a key player in the £175bn pa Simple Shopping government procurement shambles we've blogged so often.

No, I can't go on But at these times of high economic uncertainty in the real world, it's good to see such a a staggering array of well-paid cushty jobs still available in the public sector.

(HTP Mr V Angry)

£50m for translations nobody reads

According to the Telegraph:

"Town halls and Whitehall spend £50 million a year on translation and interpretation for the benefit of people who cannot speak English. Yet now an investigation has found that many of the expensively-produced foreign-language leaflets have never been read.

Documents which have failed to attract a single reader include a pamphlet for gipsies translated into Polish, and a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender directory translated into French. No-one read the Haringey Women's Directory when it was translated into Albanian, Bengali, Kurdish, Somali or Urdu.

The public bodies which spent the most on translations last year were the Metropolitan Police (£10.6 million), the Department for Work and Pensions (£4 million), West Midlands Police (£2.3 million), the Welsh Assembly (£2 million) and the Crown Prosecution Service (£1.5 million)."

We've met this translation moneypit before, and the government had promised to get a grip on it. Who would have guessed they'd fail.

(HTP Steve B)

Tax-funded Kinnocks

The S Times raised a lot of blood to boiling point:

"GLENYS KINNOCK, the new minister for Europe, has amassed six publicly funded pensions worth £185,000 per year with her husband Neil, the former leader of the Labour party. They have already received up to £8m of taxpayers’ money in pay and allowances, he as a European commissioner and she as a member of the European parliament.

The pair are already drawing payments from three of their taxpayer-funded pensions. Glenys Kinnock, 64, soon to be elevated to the House of Lords alongside her husband, is collecting a teacher’s pension and from next month is entitled to another from Brussels with an estimated annual value of £48,000.

Lord Kinnock, 67, is receiving one pension as a former MP and a second for his service in Brussels, together worth more than £112,000."

To which the only response is come the revolution, comrade...

(HTP - many BOM correspondents)


And finally...

In the light of Tyler's brief account of his omnibus excursion to Shepherds Bush last week, the Major draws attention to Rod Liddle's S Times column:

"The overwhelming bulk of violent street crime in London is committed by young black men, and in numerous cases against white people, although one would not impute a racial motive; the statistics suggest that young black male criminals are quite happy to stab or shoot anybody who hoves into view with either a bulging wallet, a mobile phone or an assumed reflection of disrespec’ in their eyes.

Apologies if this offends – but that’s how it is. At most, the African Caribbean population of London is about 12% of the whole. But black males are responsible for nearly 60% of arrests for robbery – and the overwhelming majority of gun crime, most of it black-on-black violence.

We skirt this issue, mostly for decent, if deluding reasons – that a proportion of young black males is more likely to commit violent crime than other sectors of the population. It is a form of racism, though, to assume that the problem is simply a given, and unalterable – but we have been hamstrung in our attempts to deal with it for reasons of political correctness."

The Major doesn't generally approve of lefty Liddle, but reckons he's spot on here.

"So why do we have to tolerate this?" he roars. "Why can't we lock these people up? We could double the number of prison places for £3bn pa, and we could get £1bn of that from canning the useless Probation Service! Or why not make them join the army? Prison or the army - that's your choice son... Sgt Major Hogsflesh would soon sort them out".

(See here for a collection of the Major's bracing views on cost effective criminal justice, along with some facts and figures culled by Tyler).

Sunday, June 14, 2009

I NEED to go to SCHOOL!!

Sabi nga ni B sa Plurk nya kanina, bukas may pasok na. Nag-react ako kasi akala ko Linggo pa rin. Tapos nang mapatingin ako sa YM at sa message ni JM, ayun. Alas dose pasado na nga. At bukas nga, papasok na rin kami. Hinding-hindi na ko makapaghintay. Ano nga bang meron sa sem na to at sobra ang excitement level ko? Biruin mo katatapos lang halos ng Summer classes. Sabagay, maaari ngang inubos ko na ang “sense and feeling” ng summer break dun sa 4-day getaway ko sa labas ng Pinas. Kaya pagkatapos ng paguran doon e heto ako’t nagdedemmand na mag-enrollment na at ngayon nga, mag-klase na.

Kung hindi ba naman kasi dumating at napalaganap yang A(H1N1) na lintik na yan e hindi naman magiging atrasado ang pasukan (hence, pati Sembreak nadedelikadong maatras). Naiinis pa rin ako sa fact na dumating ang pandemic na yon. Panira ng matiwasay na AY 09-10. Pampasira ng Acad Calendar. Di ko pa rin nababalitaan kung ano na ang bagong Acad Calendar. Baka maging kalunos-lunos na ang schedule ng buong UP system. Hindi yon mapipigilan. Haay, ang sarap mag ‘haay’. Di ko na rin alam kung pano makatulog dahil sa excitement ko bukas.

Sawang-sawa na ko sa kaka- MfW, kaka-Plurk, kaka-FB, kaka-FS, kaka-YM, kaka-marathon, kaka-sine, kaka-nood ng TV, kaka-record ng palabas at lahat na ng ‘kakang’ nagagawa mo lang nang matagal na matagal kapag bakasyon o holiday. Inip na inip na ko, parang kahit anong gawin ko e ayoko na ng bakasyon. Nakakasawa na lahat nito kasi less effort. Wala kang ginagawa kundi magpaka-slacker sa harapan ng laptop at magsabi ng walang kapararakan. Buti pa sa eskwelahan, umupo ka lang sa classroom ng isang oras at kalahati, panigurado may papasok sa utak mo kahit kaunti. E sa FB at kung saan pa, wala kang pinagpipistahan kundi ang mga wall posts ng kaibigan at hindi mo kilala, ang mga quizzes na puro kasinungalingan o hula o tsambang tugma sa iyo, at mga litratong ang sarap komentan pero wala kang magawa kaya mo nilagyan ng comment. Kung ganito lang nang ganito ang lagay, walang papasok sa kukote ko kundi mga bagay na hindi naman ako posibleng matutulungan sa magiging trabaho ko o buhay pagkatapos ng kolehiyo.

Naiinggit ako sa mga may pasok na mamaya. Makikita na nila ang mga college friends at professors nila. Makakapagchikahan na nang bonggang-bongga. Makakasilay na sa dapat sinisilayan. Magkakaroon na ng allowance…

Di bale, bukas, ako rin. :)

 

countdown: 30 hours, 5 minutes and something seconds.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Fancy stats, but the picture remains the same

For many years now, the Office for National Statistics has been beavering away trying to develop measures of output and productivity in our public services. It hasn't been at all straightforward, as we can see by glancing at the dense array of statistical formulae they have been forced to deploy.

So why is it important?

Because we've shovelled vast amounts of dosh into these services over the last decade, they now consume well over 20% of our national income, and we need to understand just what we're getting in return. We need to know if we're getting value for money.

And why's that so hard to do?

Because the output of public services is not subject to valuation in the marketplace. We know precisely what cars and window cleaning services are worth, because the marketplace tells us. But with public services provided free at the point of use, we have literally no idea what they're worth.

All we know is that they cost hundreds of billions every year, and since 1997 the bill has more than doubled.

So the ONS has being trying to work out how much of our extra spending has actually fed through into extra output. And this week, they published their latest attempt, which for the first time gave a picture for the whole of our public services (although still excluding welfare payments, and other cash transfers). Here's their widely quoted big picture:



As we can see, they reckon that from 1997 to 2007, the combined output of our public services went up by 33.6%. Unfortunately, the inputs - after stripping out inflation - increased by 38%. So according to the ONS, productivity fell by just over 3%.

Now let's just be quite sure we all understand what that means. It means that compared to 1997, our public services are now delivering worse value for money - we get less for every pound we put in.

Ah well, you say, a fall of 3%... that's not too bad... at least the bulk of the extra money has fed though into more output... at least we are getting 33.6% more healthcare, education, law enforcement etc etc. Could be a lot worse, so quit whining.

Hmm.

Just compare this public service productivity performance with that delivered by the market sector of the economy. According to the ONS, over that same period, 1997-2007, productivity in the market sector increased by 2.2% pa. Which meant that by the end of the period we were getting nearly a quarter more output from the same input.

So why can't our public services manage that? Surely they should be able to achieve at least some productivity gains. Surely they shouldn't be giving us worse value for money as each year passes. How hard can it be?

And in truth, the picture is almost certainly even worse than the ONS figures suggest.

That's because the ONS has incorporated into its output measures a series of highly contentious "quality" adjustments which they claim have the effect of increasing measured output year-on-year.

For example, its measure of education output basically comprises the number of pupils passing through our state schools and colleges. But the ONS now adjusts that straightforward measure for supposed improvements in quality, and they do that by factoring in the year-on-year rise GCSE grades.

What?

GCSE grades as in prizes-for-all-dumbed-down-through-the-floor-abandoned-by-the-leading-private-schools GCSE grades? Why would anyone believe education quality had improved just because our kids have even more of them?

Similarly, the ouput of healthcare services has been adjusted for supposed improved quality using - among other indicators - the reduction in recorded waiting times. Even though we know that waiting times are routinely massaged and gamed by NHS managers (see previous posts).

So the ONS results almost certainly overstate the output growth of our public services and understate the extent to which productivity has fallen.

Indeed, the ONS themselves publish this alternative version of productivity, without the quality adjustment (blue line):

As we can see, on this measure, productivity is down by 9% over the period, a fall of around 1%pa.

Or to put it the other way round, even after allowing for inflation, every pound we put into public services today buys 9% less than it did a decade ago.

Ten years of massive spending has left us with the fiscal headache to end all fiscal headaches. And despite interminable wittering about public service reform, value for money has gone out the window. How long are we supposed to put up with this?

Never mind about "ring-fencing" this or that hot potato public service. Now the money has run out, drastic reform is the only solution:
  • choice and competition
  • school vouchers
  • social health insurance
  • elected sheriffs
  • localised welfare
  • fiscal decentralisation

We all know the score by now.

But sadly, we're still searching for those balls of steel.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Green Shoots


Green shoots, eh? Seen any round your way?

Yesterday's report from the National Institute (NIESR) said:

"Our monthly estimates of GDP... point to March as having been the trough of the depression, with output rising in April and May."
According to them, GDP rose by 0.3% between March and May.

Which has been seized on by some Labour commentators as confirming the economic genius of Gordo. His boldness in reflating, bailing out the banks, and slashing interest rates, has made this one of the least painful depressions ever. Much less painful than the Great Depressions visited on us by the Evil Tories.

So where's this growth actually coming from?

NIESR says both industry and private services have expanded by about one-half percent - so surprisingly, it isn't coming from booming public services (although they have grown by 2% over the last 12 months).

Which is fine.

But the real question is where do we go from here?

Because it's hardly surprising that fiscal splurges and unbridled use of the printing press can shore up demand in the economy in the short-term. But after the initial boost, what happens next?

Deficit financing on the current scale is unsustainable: the financial markets will simply not tolerate it. And roaring printing presses always have the same ultimate pay-off: an inflationary blow-out.

Green shoots they may be.

But green shoots ahead of a hard frost are not necessarily such a great idea.

PS No time for a proper blog today, because for various reasons, I had to visit Shepherds Bush. The first challenge was public transport. Fortunately, it turned out that the 94 bus makes an excellent alternative to Bob Crow's Central Line... except that it takes about four times as long. But then there was my travelling companion. I found himself wedged in on a crowded top deck by a hefty black teenager whose main aim seemed to be the intimidation of fellow passengers. He was wearing a baseball cap pulled right down, dark glasses, and a bandit-style face mask. His mp3 player was particularly loud. Now sure, he was probably a victim himself - I couldn't help noticing the scars on his wrist. But who's to intimidate on the 94 bus in broad daylight?

Wednesday, June 10, 2009



One immortal soul heading downstairs


"This is the day when the Conservatives have revealed their true manifesto for this country. There can be no doubt that the choice, whenever it comes, is between a Government prepared to invest in the future and a Conservative Party that is going to cut."

So said our OMG-is-he-still-there "leader" at PMQs today.

What on earth is he talking about? In the most recent Budget, his own Chancellor - second-choice Chancellor though he may be - gave us the biggest public spending cuts since Labour's last biggest public spending cuts in 1976.

One explanation is that poor Mr Brown genuinely believes his Government is not planning to cut. After all, down there in the bunker he's had a lot of harrassment lately, and the good Doc reckons he really could be cracking up. It's quite possible he simply doesn't understand how bad things are, and thinks those twenty fresh divisions he's going to hurl against the Russkies actually exist.

So in a spirit of helpfulness may we remind him what Darling told us in April (also see this post, and note that some of the following figures are lifted from the excellent IFS analysis).

Darling said that spending will increase from £671bn this year to £752bn in 2013-14, which were the numbers Gordo repeated today. But of course, those are cash figures - not discounted for future inflation - and they include the temporary pre-election spending boost.

If instead we concentrate on the period post-2010-11, and adjust the cash numbers for Darling's own forecast of inflation, we find a rather different picture. Overall spending falls by 0.1% pa. But within that, debt interest and welfare benefits will unavoidably grow strongly. Which implies that Darling is planning Big Cuts in other areas.

Here's the IFS's summary of Darling's spending plans post-2011:


So as we can see, spending on debt interest explodes by 8.4% pa in real terms (actually, we reckon it will grow even faster than that - see this post). Welfare benefits and similar spending grow by almost 2% pa. Which means that Darling is planning cuts in all other spending - including the NHS and schools - of about 2.3% pa in real terms.

Furthermore, as the unfortunate Andrew Lansley blurted out this morning, if you ringfence the NHS and overseas aid - which Cam himself has inadvisedly promised - then the cuts elsewhere will be even bigger... around 10% over three years. And that is precisely what Darling is planning (well, either that, or his numbers are even more nonsensical than usual).

So does Gordo not know any of this? Is he really that far gone?

No of course not.

He is simply telling the British electorate another of his Gigantic Lies. Just like all those lies he told when he was Chancellor himself.

You do kinda wonder what went on in that famous manse of his.

I'm sure Jesus never said lying was OK.

And personally, I wouldn't want to be explaining this at the Pearly Gates.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Yes, this letter has been invading my mind for the past 7 years now. What’s with this letter that almost everything related to the things that make me go in hanyaan mode involves it? Hmn. Let me enumerate some of it, but please, do not react violently.

 

  1. First off is the set of “Johns” in our 2nd year OL Rosary classroom. :)
  2. Next is the J’s in my closest guy friends’ names (June, JM, John Gerard, JJJ…).
  3. Then third would be initial J of the hated person I had in 3rd year Rose of Lima (no name dropping :D)
  4. Followed by my first boyfriend’s first name during 4th year high school
  5. Then the nickname of one of my suitors starts with it,
  6. Add up to the list would be the name of my first Asian guy idol and crush, Mr. Jerry Yan
  7. Seconded by Jay Chou during 4th year high school, thanks to Inital D Live Action (and JKP for introducing him)
  8. Then another hated person for end of High School :)
  9. And yet another, why would I forget, my first crush during Elementary school, James
  10. Don’t forget High School’s viral J crush :D
  11. College days had more than 7 friends with the J initial (JR, Jill, Jester, and a lot more).
  12. Had another J Chinese (this time Mainland) crush, he is Jun Ning
  13. Ooh, speaking of Jun, my other hot Japanese guy during High School is Arashi’s Jun Matsumoto (Tsukasa of HYD)
  14. Then Jun Pyo and Ji Hoo comes along during College (BBF)
  15. Still, JS is my current boyfriend,
  16. At College, encountered many Jose’s in NCPAG (yea you know who you are :))
  17. At UP, encountered the JJ’s in this recent UP Fair (Jumping Jologs, XD)
  18. And finally, J is the first letter of my favorite country, JAPAN :)

 

I know there would be more to this that I haven’t included, but this shall do for the meantime. I should add to this if anything comes my way related to this.

The Message From Bruvver Crow

Two previous messages...








And now we have his new message: a full-blown 48 hour strike on the London Underground, starting now.

So what's it over, exactly?

To start with, it seems Bob and the bruvvers don't like the pay deal they've been offered. They reckon that a five year deal giving them inflation plus 1% for the first year, and inflation plus 0.5% pa thereafter, is just plain mean.

What! you exclaim.

What the FFFF!!????

Isn't it a fact that tube workers are pretty well wedged already? Don't tube drivers get paid £40 grand as a starting salary, and station supervisors £35-39K? And come to that, isn't it a fact that earnings in the private sector are actually falling?

Yes, well, OK... park the pay issue. The RMT have other grievances.

First, they want a cast iron job guarantee. With such lucrative positions, members are naturally keen not to lose them. Especially given the chill blasts blowing above ground, where everyone else is facing the chop every single day.

And second, it turns out they're also striking for the reinstatement of two suspended comrades facing disciplinaries. One comrade is being victimised by means of a criminal trial for theft, and the other is being picked on over a trivial matter of opening the doors on the wrong side of his train, nearly losing his passengers overboard, and then lying about it afterwards.

So Bob's message today is that ordinaryhardworkinghardpressedwageslave Londoners must suffer so that his members can grab an even bigger slice of the pie, enjoy even more job security, and be even less subject to management discipline.

But Bob's real message is of course much bigger.

His real message is that now is the best chance in years for public sector unions to go for gold.

Think about it. As we blogged here, the public sector is four times more heavily unionised than the private sector, with a 60% membership rate. Which means the unions have far more power in the public sector.

And public sector workers are far more likely to strike (see this post): even in the relative industrial calm of the last five years, they have been 30 times more likely to go out.

The result is that the public sector loses many more days to industrial action than the private sector, even though it employs only a quarter as many people:


So against that background, public sector union bosses are looking at a once in a career opportunity.

Here we have a reeling dispirited government who no longer care if they give away the shop. They're way beyond that. Their main aim now is to minimise the scale of their defeat, which definitely DEFINITELY means no Winter of Discontent style public sector strikes.

Sure, if they give in to big union demands they'll be increasing the problems facing the next government. But why should they worry? They don't care if they make life more difficult for Dave and George in 12 months time - in fact, that would be a positive bonus.

And the union bosses ain't quite so dumb as they look (they can hardly be that dumb). They know that life will be much tougher with Dave and George across the table, if only because D&G will be aiming to stick around for a decade.

So if you're a public sector union boss, there's only one conclusion: now is the time to strike.

Literally.

Update 10-6 - interesting cross reference on transport pay in today's Times: "Data from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) shows for the first time how much higher BA’s wage costs are than its rivals. The average salary for BA’s 14,000 cabin crew, including bonuses and allowances, is £29,900, compared with £14,400 at Virgin Atlantic and £20,200 at easyJet. BA’s pilots earn an average of £107,600, compared with £89,500 at Virgin and £71,400 at easyJet." Interesting.